Polling for the sixth phase of Lok Sabha elections in 2019 has been finished. But the Karnataka Govt. is still in Danger. This is the only state in south India where BJP has not formed a government on its own. However, it is called its gateway in the south. The assembly elections were held in May 2018, in which BJP, Congress and HD Deve Gowda’s Janata Dal-Secular fought separately. Meantime, BJP missed a minor margin with the majority mark and Congress-JD(S) formed the government together. In Lok Sabha elections (Lok Sabha election 2019), Congress is contesting with JD(S). But despite the coalition, BJP expects Karnataka’s stronghold to be preserved.
Recently, State BJP president Yeddyurappa said on Sunday that there is an atmosphere in favor of his party in the state. On the other hand, two days ago, Minister of State, Zameer Ahmed Khan, claimed that 10 BJP legislators were in touch with his party.
Khan’s comments come two days after Karnataka BJP chief B S Yeddyurappa said the longevity of the state government would depend on the decision taken by about 20 “disgruntled” Congress legislators after the Lok Sabha election results.
Khan accused Yeddyurappa of “daydreaming” about coming to power and declared he would retire from politics if the Congress-Janata Dal (Secular) government falls after the election results on May 23.
“Yeddyurappa said that the workers of his party are uniting and contesting the Kundgol and Chincholi assembly by-elections. BJP will win both seats. Yeddyurappa had said on Saturday that after the Lok Sabha elections 20 Congress MLAs will be with him.”
In 2014 Polls, BJP got 17 out of the 28 Lok Sabha seats in Karnataka. Earlier, when the Congress government was formed in 2004 and 2009, BJP was succeeded to win 18 and 19 seats respectively. That is, even in bad times, this stronghold of BJP continued.
But the question is how will BJP survive despite the alliance. In such a case, analyze the results of the Lok Sabha elections held in 2014, the Congress-JDS coalition will be seen contradictory. On one side it will show a lot of increase in the alliance’s vote bank, but the seats on the other side will not be the same.
In the Lok Sabha, there are 28 seats from Karnataka. In 2014 Lok Sabha elections, BJP won 17 seats, Congress 9 and JDS won 2 seats. Then BJP got 43.37 percent, Congress 41.15 percent and JDS got 11.07 percent vote. If we added Congress and JDS votes together then it is more than 52 percent.
If we look at the results of 2014 last Lok Sabha elections, Mysore is the only Lok Sabha seat out of 28 Lok Sabha seats in Karnataka, where JDS and Congress could defeat BJP.
In Karnataka, JDS has a stronghold in Mysore and it’s surrounding area and it has the support of its core voters Vokkaliga. JDS wins the election with the help of its Muslim voter which is its core voter. When the Muslim voter goes somewhere else, it comes to the surface.
Seats, where JD(S) got good votes, were Chitradurga, Tumkur, Bengaluru Rural, Chikkabalpur, and Kolar. But all these seats were won by the Congress in the last election. That is, the alliance’s vote will increase in these seats, but the number of seats will remain same. In the last elections, JDS had won two seats- Hassan and Mandya, but in these seats, the party defeated Congress, not the BJP.
In this way, eight of the 9 seats with effect from JD(S) have already been in the coalition. Mysore can be a tough comptetion for BJP whose result can be changed as Congress-JD(S) alliance have a stronghold in this constituency.
So far from this analysis, It is so clear that JD(S)-Congress alliance votes can increase, but seats are not enough. But this does not mean that there is no possibility of getting a shock from Karnataka in the Lok Sabha in the BJP. In fact, BJP, which had gotten 43.37 percent votes in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, got only 36 percent votes in 2018 assembly elections. In such a way, BJP has lost more than 7% votes in last four years.
The biggest problem for BJP is that they have lost their vote against Congress. It means when Congress and BJP would fight in BJP-dominated areas, Congress will be in a better position than 2014. Although, Congress’s vote has also dropped from 41.15 percent to 38 percent. But the only relief for the Congress is that they didn’t lose this vote against BJP.
JDS got 11 percent votes in the Lok Sabha which rose to 18 percent in the assembly elections. It means the vote of Congress is directly transferred to JD(S).
One important thing about JD(S) is that because of being a regional political party, every time their vote percentage increases in assembly and decreases in the Lok Sabha. That is why they had won 40 seats in the assembly, while in the Lok Sabha they are still on two seats.